Political instability in Hong Kong, ongoing negotiations on Brexit and trade tensions between the United States and China have made 2019 a year of uncertainty for luxury properties worldwide, according to global real estate consulting firm Knight Frank.
In its recent Prime Global Forecast 2020 report, the company looked to the future to understand how the most important real estate markets in the world will go this year. Here is the trend that the most important luxury property markets in the world should have in 2020, in ascending order based on the expected percentage of appreciation:
15. Vancouver. British Columbia’s port city will see luxury house prices drop another 5% in 2020, but the decline is slowing down, according to Knight Frank.
14. New York. According to forecasts, it should see a 3% depreciation of high-end homes in 2020, due to lower mortgage interest rates and the excellent performance of employment indicators.
13. Dubai. Although luxury property prices are expected to drop 2% this year, the high-end housing market in Dubai will be favored by Expo 2020, which will be held in October in this city.
12. Mumbai. The prediction is that buyers in Mumbai (Bombay) will be “cautious” in 2020 after the economic slowdown experienced in 2019 and the increase in stamp duty, according to Knight Frank. High-end property prices are expected to drop by 1%.
11. Hong Kong. Political unrest in Hong Kong suggests that the luxury housing market is expected to remain mostly static this year: neither significant falls nor increases in prices are expected.
10. London. Since the halo of uncertainty around Brexit has partially dissipated after the elections led to the establishment of a conservative majority in Parliament, the housing market in London should benefit from unlocking a “demand that has built up in the past years ”, which according to the report should push prices up by about 1%.
9. Los Angeles. Luxury homes are expected to appreciate 2% overall in Los Angeles in 2020, but the exact percentage depends on the price range considered.
6. Melbourne. The forecast is that the prices of luxury homes in Melbourne will rise by 3% thanks to a context characterized by lower interest rates.
6. Singapore. In Singapore too, the high-end market should see prices rise by around 3%, thanks to the shift of assets from Hong Kong due to political tensions in the area.
6. Madrid. Knight Frank expects prices in Madrid to rise by 3% in 2020, thanks to the increase in the number of international buyers.
4. Sydney. The expected percentage of price increases in Sydney in 2020 is 4%, thanks to lower interest rates, limited supply of high-end houses and considerable investments in the light rail network.
4. Geneva. Geneva should also see prices rise 4%, for reasons similar to Sydney: low interest rates and investments in transport – in the case of Geneva, the local rail network Leman Express.
2. Miami. Luxury properties in Miami will cost 5% more at the end of the year, according to Knight Frank, mainly thanks to the incoming flow of rich people fleeing the tax reform, which has made it more expensive to have a home owned in places like New York, Connecticut, California and New Jersey.
2. Berlin. The German capital will record a 5% rise in prime property prices in 2020 according to the report, thanks to strong demand from both domestic and international buyers.
1.Paris. Paris should be the best performing luxury property market in 2020, thanks to a 7% appreciation, low interest rates, economic stability and limited supply of top-level properties, according to Knight Frank. The French capital’s real estate market will also receive a boost thanks to the future Summer Olympics of 2024 and the Grand Paris project, the largest infrastructure initiative in Europe.